Microsoft-Yahoo deal possible in the next few days

by billso on Wednesday, 30 April 2008

The Microsoft-Yahoo takeover battle may be resolved soon, according to Wired:

One of the better insights came from Citigroup analyst Mark Mahaney, who handicapped the outcomes of the Microsoft-Yahoo war. Mahaney reckons there’s a 45 percent chance Yahoo sells out at a higher offer; a 40 percent chance Microsoft goes hostile; a 10 percent chance Microsoft walks away; and a 5 percent chance they both agree to the current price.

Yesterday’s New York Times had additional details. Saturday, 26 April 2008, was the deadline that Microsoft had set for Yahoo’s response to its recent purchase offer. According to this New York Times analysis, it seems unlikely that Microsoft CEO will abandon the company’s pursuit of Yahoo, because failure might send the wrong signals to the market.

Microsoft’s CFO, Chris Liddell, has led the company to spend more on acquisitions, and take on debt for the first time in the company’s 33-year history. He was profiled in Reuters article, which also discusses his management style.

To merge or not to merge

Microsoft doesn’t really need Yahoo, according to a recent research report. Michael Cusumano suggested in this New York Times article by Randall Stross that Yahoo is a poor fit with Microsoft’s enterprise software ambitions. SAP would be a better choice for Microsoft, especially after Oracle’s acquisition of BEA.

Another ZDnet report and this Wired article indicate that Yahoo has increased its severance packages for employees.

On 25 February 2008, Yahoo CEO asked his number two, Sue Decker, to join him on-stage at an important presentation, according to the New York Times. Decker has excellent ties with the advertising industry, and she was the real architect of Yahoo’s advertising business strategy.

Yang needs all the help he can get when facing nervous customers. At the event, Yang called Microsoft’s bid a “galvanizing event” for Yahoo managers, employees and board members. That’s some deep thinking… deep like a puddle. Threats of acquisition and unemployment can really command attention. The company’s plan to recapture its former dominance as an Internet portal is about seven years too late.

Photos courtesy of Carsten Knoch (top) and code_martial (bottom) through a Creative Commons license.